It’s Casual Friday! Emma speaks with Ettingermentum of the “Ettingermentum Newsletter” on SubStack to discuss the state of play with just about 5 and a half weeks before the 2024 election. First, Emma runs through updates on the arraignment of Eric Adams, Harris’ polling lead, the US economy, Bibi’s visit to the UN, the rising death toll in Lebanon, Jim Clyburn’s endorsement of Lina Khan, Democratic Party funds, Trump’s legal woes, a potential censure of Clay Higgins, and an impending Kansas City rent strike, before tackling Elon Musk’s evident banning of Ken Klippenstein in a case that oddly resembles a certain #TwitterFiles. Ettingermentum then joins diving right into the misconceptions about the upcoming US Presidential election, particularly when it comes to polling, first stepping back to assess what pundits got wrong about the development of the US electorate over the last eight years – particularly in terms of solid Dem performance in the Sunbelt and Midwest – before diving deeper into why Kamala Harris’ floor and ceiling in these major swing states are significantly higher than Trump (despite her performance also somewhat raising Trump’s floor). After expanding on Harris’ commitment to the Democrats’ well-ossified campaign strategy of cozying up to corporate elites, Ettingermentum and Emma tackle the likelihood of a strategic or policy shift by Harris once in office and unpack the gap that still exists in the polling for her and other major Democratic candidates in swing states. Ettingermentum then gives us a greater review of polling across the Electoral College and explores what a potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East could do to change that, wrapping up the show with some fun musings on the state of political polling.

And in the Fun Half: Emma and the MR Team watch Biden’s absurd adulation of Netanyahu on the View as horrifying bombing footage still coming out of Beirut, and parse through Netanyahu’s UN appearance and what it tells us about Israel’s role as the most important US client state in the Middle East. A Caller tackles Reagan’s role as the spark for modern conservatism, John from Virginia on the two-state solution conversation, and Jesse Watters has an unsurprising take on Kamala Harris. Tim Pool has a hell of an anti-migrant conspiracy theory, plus, your calls and IMs!

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